forex articles

Euro Split?

It is important to study the table found in the Financial Times, it is a fixed interest securities and it slowly moves. It is what I call the thinking point. It is the most crucial point of global finance, and it’s good to understand the relationships behind the table to answer what and whys of the possible split.

A Reliable Spread


Investing in a 10 year German bond in Euros is stable compared to other investments because it’s a currency with a yield of lower than four percent. The variety of euro bonds is lots, it represents all types of currencies in Europe but the strongest is the German bond which gives you a return of 3.96 percent, the most affordable is Greek which gives you a yield of 4.46 percent.

It is actually higher than the 0.5 percent about the German income, but I really don’t know why this is so, somehow somebody does it for the sake of the euro currency. Greek-German spread is a blue chip stable investment. The spread is currently not allowed to have a wide point to strengthen the euro.
Greek bonds are actually overvalued in terms of long term investment risk. In Germany, there is no risk at all, only foreseeable ones. Only a sudden down turn of the oil industry can threatened the euro zone, as the oil production shook the market in 1970, but far away from that, it can be war or a terrorist attack which can cause the weakening of the euro.

The weakest link


Greece is not the weakest link even if it is considered as the least in euro currencies. If Greece was not part of the euro zone, its interest rates are higher up to six percent compared to New Zealand or Australia. This also applies to European countries in the zone too. Greece has a yield of almost a half percent more than Germany and Italy is quite close to that level, at 47%, compared to Portugal. Spain has 0.28% with Austria in the central Eurozone.

The risk of the two Europe’s is under pricing. The two Europe’s can come into being if British and German were to have divergent issues on federation – the next UK government may become anti-federalist compared to the existing government – or in competition to the supply and demand of oil. The two of Europe's finance moguls could exist because of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece, which could no longer face the challenge of a euro that is highly priced.
In my opinion, the two Europe’s are not in a high risk whether financially or politically, but like in any business there is always a risk of being under priced, caused by the intervention of European Central Bank

The two Europe risk is important to consider on a 10 year bond with a 10 year view. Britain will ratify the Lisbon Treaty without having the referendum, which can put the two Europe at risk.
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